By There is just one more game to go, but will Euro 2024 end with glory for England or Spain?
BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton faltered in the semi-finals when France – his pre-tournament pick to win the tournament – were beaten by Spain.
Still, he correctly predicted England would get past the Netherlands, and even got the 2-1 scoreline right too.
You did even better, with 75% of you correctly backing Spain, while 63% of you went with England to beat the Dutch.
There is just one more game to go, but will Euro 2024 end with glory for England or Spain?
BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton faltered in the semi-finals when France – his pre-tournament pick to win the tournament – were beaten by Spain.
Still, he correctly predicted England would get past the Netherlands, and even got the 2-1 scoreline right too.
You did even better, with 75% of you correctly backing Spain, while 63% of you went with England to beat the Dutch.
Gareth Southgate has done well to get England to the final, and he deserves a lot of praise.
I actually thought their semi-final win over the Netherlands was England’s best display so far. They really impressed me in the first half, when they took control of the game.
It was still a far-from-perfect performance, but Southgate’s substitutions came off with Cole Palmer playing in Ollie Watkins for the winner.
Harry Kane is the tournament’s joint-leading scorer now with three goals but he is not really one who runs in behind.
Watkins is a bit more dynamic and offers a different kind of threat.
There is a criticism of England at this tournament that they haven’t stretched opposition backlines enough. You always need people making movements in behind, and Watkins gives them that.
Kane is different in that he is a central striker and you have to create opportunities for him. In and around the box, he is devastating, but the onus then has been on Bukayo Saka or Jude Bellingham to run in behind.
That has not happened very often, and it means England have been predictable to play against.
Having said all of that, I think it is a massive plus for Southgate that he has these different types of players who can affect games in different ways.
I look at their depth up front very much as a positive, rather than a stick to hit Kane with. I don’t think Watkins will start the final, I am pretty sure of that, but there is still always that option of bringing him on.
It is the same with Palmer too. I have been banging on all tournament about him deserving a starting place, which he hasn’t had yet, but he has still been coming on and affecting games.
Spain are a test on a different scale
As I say, England have done well to get to this final, but this is a test on a totally different scale.
I have covered Spain numerous times at these Euros and they have been the outstanding side at this tournament.
They are a team that have this wonderful ability to win games in different ways. Spain are traditionally a side who control possession but, while they can still do that and be dominant with the ball, they are also devastating without seeing much of it.
Everyone talks about their young wingers, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, for obvious reasons, but they are strong pretty much everywhere you look.
Spain will have right-back Dani Carvajal back from suspension and must decide whether to recall Robin le Normand over Nacho at centre-back after his ban.
So, as well as the best two wide players, they are especially solid in the middle of the park, with the best midfield in the tournament. On top of that, with only three goals conceded in six games, they have got the best defence too.
Alvaro Morata works hard up front but I’d say that’s the only area where you could say they don’t have an outstanding player.
Mind you, there have not been any really outstanding centre-forwards at this tournament. Maybe this is the game where Morata or Kane really come to the fore?
Can Saka expose Cucurella?
Spain’s strength is in midfield with Rodri, who everyone views as the best number six – or holding midfielder, in the world. He has been his usual self but, alongside him, Fabian Ruiz has this marvellous habit of drifting into the box late to get on the end of chances, and England will have to watch out for that.
Dani Olmo, who plays as a number 10, also drifts but he will run in behind too. He only got his opportunity because Pedri was injured but with three goals and two assists he has been on fire.
Lamal scored a brilliant goal against France, while Williams has been the most exciting attacking player at the tournament.
It is going to be hard for England to keep all of them quiet, because Spain can play through you, and they can play over you too.
While England were quite rightly praised for their performance against the Netherlands, they are going to have to go up another level or two to come out on top here.
England’s best chance is probably if they can get Saka one-on-one with Marc Cucurella – Spain’s left-back – because he can cause him all sorts of problems.
That’s not because I think Cucurella is a poor player, by the way, more because I don’t see any weaknesses in any other areas of the Spain team.
The verdict?
Spain’s players are so game-aware, they read what is happening so well.
So at times they will press high, other times they will drop deep, stay narrow and block the pockets of space that Phil Foden found against the Dutch.
Then all of a sudden, when they win the ball back, in the space of one or two passes, they will always have those runners in behind.
Williams’ battle with Kyle Walker is going to be worth watching, but that is just one of the individual duels that will decide the outcome.
England are a bits-and-pieces team, in that they have found moments that matter rather than produced sustained patterns of play.
I have very little doubt in my mind that Spain will be the better team and we will see clear patterns of play from them, but England have got to do what they have done all tournament – they have not always been the best team in the games they have won.
Southgate’s side are growing in confidence, plus they have togetherness and individual players who can hurt Spain, but I don’t think it will be enough.
Nothing would please me more than seeing England get over the line and for Southgate to fly home as a European champion, but I have not been backing them blindly throughout and I am not going to start now.
I am going with Spain to win, because they are in sync, they have been so superior so far… and I don’t see England stopping them.
Sutton’s prediction: Spain 2-1 England
Culled from BBC
