By Allan Lichtman, the historian famously known as the “Nostradamus of Elections” for his accurate predictions of U.S. presidential races since 1984, has revealed his forecast for the 2024 election. In an interview with The New York Times, Lichtman declared, “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.” He was the same person who predicted the 2016 victory of former President Donald Trump.
Lichtman’s prediction relies on his “Keys to the White House” method, a system of 13 true-or-false questions about the election race that has proven remarkably accurate over the past four decades. The method predicts that the incumbent party will win if eight or more of the 13 statements are true.
According to Lichtman, the Harris campaign currently holds eight “true” keys, indicating a victory, albeit in what he anticipates will be a close race. The historian emphasized the importance of the Democratic Party’s decision to unite behind Harris after President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, stating, “The Democrats finally got smart and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris.”
Among the factors favoring Harris in Lichtman’s analysis are the absence of a significant third-party challenger, a strong short-term economy, major policy changes during the Biden administration, and stronger long-term economic growth over the past two terms. Lichtman also noted the lack of major social unrest and White House scandals as positive indicators for Harris.
However, Lichtman identified three definite “false” keys for Harris: the Democrats’ loss of House seats in the midterms, the fact that the incumbent president is not running for re-election, and the perceived lack of charisma in the incumbent administration.
The historian has yet to decide on two of the 13 keys related to foreign policy successes and failures, citing the fluid situation regarding the government’s handling of the war in Gaza. Notably, Lichtman stated that even if these two undecided keys were to favor Trump, his model would still predict a Harris victory.
Lichtman’s forecast contrasts with current polls and prediction markets. The prediction market Polymarket currently places Donald Trump’s odds slightly ahead at 53%, while RealClear Polling shows Harris with a narrow two-point lead. Swing state polls present a mixed picture, with Trump and Harris each leading in different key states.
The historian’s track record lends significant weight to his prediction. Lichtman has correctly forecast every U.S. presidential election since 1984, with the notable exception of the controversial 2000 race between Al Gore and George W. Bush. In that instance, Lichtman accurately predicted Gore’s popular vote win but not the Electoral College outcome.
As the 2024 election approaches, political observers and campaign strategists will be closely watching to see if Lichtman’s prediction holds true, potentially extending his remarkable streak of accurate forecasts in American presidential politics.
