US-Russia Rivalry Intensifies in Central African Republic as Wagner Group’s Future Uncertain

US-Russia Rivalry Intensifies in Central African Republic as Wagner Group’s Future Uncertain

The battle for influence in Africa between the United States and Russia is playing out dramatically in the Central African Republic (CAR), where the sudden death of Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has left a power vacuum.

On June 23, 2023, the day Prigozhin launched his armed rebellion against Russian military leadership, CAR officials urgently sought collaboration with Bancroft Global Development, a U.S. private security firm. This move, revealed in a letter obtained by the Associated Press, has sparked tensions with the approximately 1,500 Russian Wagner Group mercenaries stationed in the country.

“If the U.S. can’t regain a foothold, it could give Russia greater economic and political leverage,” said Samuel Ramani of the Royal United Services Institute. “If Russia loses Central African Republic, its flagship model on the continent, there could be a domino effect in other countries.”

The Wagner Group has operated in CAR since 2017, credited with helping the government repel a rebel attack on the capital, Bangui, in 2021. However, the group faces accusations of human rights abuses, including torture and civilian killings.

A CAR soldier, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the AP he witnessed Wagner mercenaries lock a fellow soldier in a sweltering container as punishment, with many dying inside such containers after weeks of confinement.

Bancroft’s entry into CAR has been largely secretive. Michael Stock, Bancroft’s founder, revealed to the AP that fewer than 30 Bancroft personnel are currently in CAR, assisting with intelligence systems, interagency cooperation, and law enforcement.

“Touadera felt his Russian partners were underperforming and distracted, focused too much on other lines of effort ranging from breweries to cultural centers, rather than confronting the rebels,” Stock said, explaining President Faustin-Archange Touadera’s decision to reach out to Bancroft.

The U.S. State Department has denied involvement in CAR’s decision to establish Bancroft’s presence. However, a U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged ongoing discussions about improving security without Wagner, dating back to a December 2022 private meeting.

Russia has responded aggressively to Bancroft’s presence. Stock claims a Bancroft employee was detained and questioned for hours by Russian forces in January, only released after Touadera’s intervention. Anti-American protests have erupted outside the U.S. embassy in Bangui, and local youths formed the Committee to Investigate U.S. Activities to monitor Bancroft’s movements.

As tensions escalate, Russia is working to rebrand its mercenary presence in Africa. The country is creating the Africa Corps, a parallel group that could absorb Wagner, according to John Lechner, a Wagner expert.

Despite the political maneuvering, many Central Africans express weariness with foreign interventions. “There are problems between the Americans and Russians, but that doesn’t matter to us,” said Jean Louis Yet, who works at Bangui’s market. “All we want is security.”

The situation in CAR reflects a broader trend across Africa, where Russia has expanded its influence through military cooperation and private military companies. The United States, seeking to counter this expansion, faces the challenge of offering comparable security assistance while addressing concerns about human rights and transparency.

As African nations navigate these complex relationships, the continent remains a critical arena in the global competition for influence between major powers, with the future of security partnerships hanging in the balance.

AP

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