BRASILIA, Brazil (BN24) — Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Thursday that his government will retaliate with steep tariffs on U.S. imports if President Donald Trump follows through on a plan to impose 50% taxes on Brazilian goods over the criminal trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Lula warned he would invoke a reciprocity law passed by Brazil’s Congress earlier this year if negotiations fail to defuse the escalating trade dispute.
“If there’s no negotiation, the reciprocity law will be put to work,” Lula told TV Record in an interview excerpt aired Thursday. “If he charges 50% from us, we will charge 50% from them. Respect is good. I like to offer mine and I like to receive it.”
The prospect of tit-for-tat tariffs has raised fears of a trade war reminiscent of Trump’s standoff with China during his first term. Trump has vowed to respond forcefully if countries retaliate against his tariffs.
Brazilian Senate President Davi Alcolumbre and Chamber of Deputies Speaker Hugo Motta issued a joint statement backing Lula, saying the reciprocity law gives Brazil “the means… to protect our sovereignty.”
“We will be ready to act with balance and firmness in defense of our economy, our productive sector, and Brazilian jobs,” the statement said.
Trump’s threat came in a letter addressed to Lula and posted on social media Wednesday, blasting what he called a “witch hunt” prosecution of Bolsonaro. The move opened a fresh front in Trump’s trade offensive, using tariffs to pressure another country over domestic legal proceedings.
Trump has previously used tariffs as leverage to confront fentanyl trafficking and to challenge other nations’ digital tax policies.
In Brazil’s case, the former U.S. president is seeking to influence the criminal case against Bolsonaro, a longtime ally charged with conspiring to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula. Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing and claims he is being persecuted by Brazil’s Supreme Court.
“There’s nothing Lula or Brazil can do about Bolsonaro’s trial,” said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in São Paulo. “Any change in that would be Brazil’s capitulation. Bolsonaro’s situation here won’t change. How do you negotiate over that?”
Lula ordered Brazilian diplomats to return Trump’s letter if it arrives at the presidential palace, condemning the document as interference in Brazil’s judicial system. The letter also cited rulings on social media companies as justification for the tariffs, which Trump said would take effect Aug. 1.
Trump’s action relies on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. He has argued that America’s trade deficits constitute a national crisis, though the U.S. actually runs a trade surplus with Brazil — undercutting part of his rationale.
A Brazilian foreign ministry official said trade talks that had been underway since Trump imposed a first round of tariffs in April are now “up in the air.”
Some Brazilian officials believe Trump’s move is partly aimed at punishing Brazil’s leadership role in the BRICS group of emerging economies, which recently met in Rio de Janeiro. At the summit, Lula again floated the idea of creating an alternative currency to the dollar — a concept that has repeatedly drawn Trump’s ire.
“Trump was never worried about democracy anywhere, much less about Bolsonaro’s destiny,” said Institutional Relations Minister Gleisi Hoffmann.
Trump’s intervention has united Brazil’s often-divided political class. Even some Bolsonaro supporters urged caution, while others blamed Lula for provoking Trump.
Daily newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, usually critical of Lula, called Trump’s letter “a mafia thing” in an editorial and said Lula’s response was appropriate.
Analysts say Trump’s actions could ultimately backfire on Bolsonaro by bolstering Lula politically ahead of elections.
“The reaction of a lot of people is that this is a political gift to Lula,” said Andre Pagliarini, a professor at Louisiana State University and fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Thomas Traumann, a political consultant and former minister, called Trump’s gambit “a game changer.”
“Trump put Lula back in the game,” Traumann said. “This gives Lula a narrative, puts Bolsonaro as the guilty part for any economic problems.”
The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled in May that Trump exceeded his authority by using emergency powers to impose tariffs without congressional approval. The administration is appealing, and critics plan to use Trump’s Brazil letter to strengthen their case.
“This is a brazenly illegal effort by Donald Trump to sacrifice the economy to settle his own personal scores,” said Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore.
While the Trump administration insists the tariffs have not significantly harmed the U.S. economy, many companies imported goods in bulk to avoid the levies. Economists warn that prices could rise when inventories run down, potentially slowing growth.
In Brazil, speculation has mounted that Bolsonaro could try to flee to the U.S. if convicted. His son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, moved to America in March and publicly thanked Trump on social media Wednesday night.
In the interview Thursday, Lula said the former president should take responsibility for the tariffs.
“His son went there to make up Trump’s mind,” Lula said. “Then he [Trump] writes a letter to speak about a case that is in the hands of the Supreme Court. What is under investigation is the evidence of the case.”
