TORONTO — Canadians are heading to the polls Monday in a high-stakes federal election that has been dramatically reshaped by the influence of US President Donald Trump, with tensions over tariffs and sovereignty dominating the political landscape.
At the beginning of 2025, the Conservative Party appeared poised for a decisive victory. However, Trump’s aggressive policies — including the imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and inflammatory remarks about making Canada the “51st state” — galvanized nationalistic sentiment across the country. The resulting political backlash has reinvigorated the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney, setting the stage for a fiercely contested race.
Final polls suggest the Liberals have gained a narrow edge over the Conservatives, but the margin remains razor-thin. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre maintains his party has the momentum to prevail, making Monday’s vote one of the most unpredictable in recent Canadian history.
The final day of campaigning was overshadowed by tragedy. An SUV plowed into a crowd attending a Filipino cultural festival in Vancouver on Saturday night, killing 11 people and injuring several others. In response, Carney canceled a campaign stop in Hamilton on Sunday morning to address the nation, while Poilievre added a visit to Mississauga to meet with members of the Filipino community, highlighting the somber mood gripping the country.
Despite the tragedy, Carney pressed forward with campaign events across Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia, seeking to bolster Liberal support in the western provinces, traditionally strongholds for the Conservatives. Meanwhile, Poilievre concentrated his final efforts in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, where 122 of Parliament’s 343 seats are up for grabs and could determine the election’s outcome. A party must secure at least 172 seats to form a majority government.
Trump’s actions have loomed large over the campaign. His decision to levy tariffs on Canadian goods, coupled with repeated remarks about annexing Canada, has shattered decades of friendly bilateral relations and stirred intense debate about national identity. Scenes of Canadian hockey fans booing the American national anthem became a potent symbol of the sudden strain between the two nations.
The election has effectively become a referendum on how Canada should navigate its future relationship with its southern neighbor during Trump’s second term. Carney, 60, has consistently warned voters about what he calls an “existential threat” posed by the US president, arguing that Trump seeks to “break us so the US can own us.”
Throughout his campaign, Carney has presented himself as uniquely equipped to steer Canada through this period of uncertainty, citing his experience leading Canada’s central bank during the Great Recession and serving as the Governor of the Bank of England during the Brexit crisis. Speaking in Saskatoon on Sunday, he urged Canadians to strengthen trade ties with “reliable partners” like the United Kingdom and the European Union, stating that the “old relationship” with the United States was effectively “over.”
In contrast, Poilievre has focused his campaign on domestic issues, lambasting what he calls the “lost Liberal decade” under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Poilievre has appealed to voters frustrated by soaring housing prices, rising costs of living, and growing concerns over crime.
“We need change so you can afford food and homes again,” he told supporters during a rally in Peterborough, northeast of Toronto.
The battle between the Liberals and Conservatives has squeezed smaller parties out of the spotlight. The left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, is facing an uphill battle to retain its seats, particularly in the face of rising support for the separatist Bloc Québécois in Quebec.
Singh, visibly shaken by the Vancouver attack — which occurred shortly after he attended the same festival — canceled several events on Sunday. Throughout the campaign, Singh had positioned the NDP as a crucial check on Liberal or Conservative dominance in Ottawa.
The Bloc Québécois, despite initially showing signs of resurgence, has struggled to maintain momentum amid voter anxiety about Trump’s aggressive posturing toward Canada. Many voters have instead gravitated toward the two major federal parties, historically the only ones to govern Canada.
President Trump himself has refrained from commenting publicly on the Canadian election, though members of his administration have continued to fan the flames. Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated Trump’s controversial stance, saying, “The president has stated repeatedly he thinks Canada would be better off as a state.”
Polling stations open at 8:30 a.m. local time in Newfoundland and Labrador (12:00 GMT), with voting taking place across six time zones. The final polls will close at 7:00 p.m. PST (03:00 GMT Tuesday) in British Columbia. A record-setting 7 million Canadians have already voted in advance polls, signaling high turnout in a nation grappling with its future identity.
The outcome of this pivotal election will not only determine Canada’s next government but could also redefine its place in a rapidly shifting global order — with its relationship to the United States under President Trump at the very heart of the debate.
