WARSAW, Poland — Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidential runoff election, narrowly defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in a tightly contested race that has underscored deep political divides across the country.
The final tally released Monday showed Nawrocki securing 50.89% of the vote, edging past Trzaskowski’s 49.11%. The razor-thin margin came after a dramatic night of shifting forecasts, with early exit polls incorrectly projecting a win for Trzaskowski before updated counts reversed the picture.
Nawrocki’s victory, backed by President Donald Trump and Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, is expected to steer the nation toward a more populist and nationalist direction, potentially intensifying tensions with the European Union while aligning Poland more closely with Trump’s foreign policy priorities.
The result caps a volatile campaign season marked by cultural clashes, competing visions for Poland’s future, and lingering dissatisfaction with the centrist government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Trzaskowski conceded on Monday, congratulating Nawrocki and thanking his supporters.
“I fought for a strong, safe, honest, and empathetic Poland,” Trzaskowski wrote on X. “I’m sorry we didn’t win together.”
The presidency will give Nawrocki a powerful platform to shape foreign policy and veto legislation, complicating Tusk’s already difficult path in delivering reforms, including loosening abortion restrictions and recognizing same-sex civil partnerships — promises stymied under outgoing President Andrzej Duda.
World leaders reacted swiftly to the election outcome. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, despite past criticism from Nawrocki, congratulated the new Polish leader, calling Poland a “pillar of regional and European security” and expressing hopes for continued cooperation.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, an ideological ally, hailed Nawrocki’s win as a “fantastic victory,” while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen issued a measured statement, emphasizing shared democratic values and EU unity.
The result has far-reaching implications not only for Poland’s domestic politics but also for its relationship with the EU, NATO, and Ukraine, particularly as Nawrocki has voiced skepticism toward continued, unconditional support for Ukrainian refugees and criticized Zelenskyy for “taking advantage of Polish generosity.”
For Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who returned to power in late 2023 through a fragile centrist coalition, Nawrocki’s victory is a major setback. His coalition’s internal divisions and inability to push through key legislation had already frustrated supporters.
With Nawrocki in office, veto power shifts decisively back to Poland’s conservative camp, potentially neutralizing Tusk’s agenda and opening the door for Law and Justice to regain political momentum ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections.
At just 42, Nawrocki is a political newcomer and amateur boxer who most recently headed Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, where he promoted a nationalist historical narrative and led campaigns to remove Soviet-era monuments — moves that landed him on Russia’s wanted list, according to Polish media.
Touted as a fresh face unburdened by PiS’s scandals from 2015 to 2023, Nawrocki nonetheless carried baggage of his own. Allegations of past associations with criminal figures and a violent street brawl clouded his candidacy, though he denied criminal links and dismissed the brawl as part of his “noble” fights. Among conservative voters, the controversies appeared to bolster rather than harm his appeal.
His platform drew strength from a broad base of voters resisting secular liberalism, LGBTQ+ rights, and EU regulatory influence. Supporters often waved U.S. flags and echoed slogans reminiscent of Trump rallies, with “normality” becoming a defining buzzword.
Nawrocki’s campaign received a significant boost from President Donald Trump, who welcomed him to the White House just weeks before the vote. The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held its first-ever event in Poland shortly before the runoff, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem openly endorsing Nawrocki and highlighting U.S.-Poland military ties.
With 10,000 U.S. troops stationed in Poland, Nawrocki’s presidency may deepen defense cooperation with Washington, especially under Trump’s administration.
Nawrocki is set to succeed President Andrzej Duda on August 6, beginning a five-year term that may reshape Poland’s political identity and foreign alliances.
The victory also throws Poland’s fragile political balance into uncertainty. With the presidency now held by a conservative nationalist and parliament controlled by centrists, the country may be heading into a new period of legislative gridlock, ideological confrontation, and geopolitical recalibration — not just for Warsaw, but for Brussels and beyond.
