By Egypt has delivered its first military aid to Somalia in more than four decades, a move that is likely to exacerbate tensions between the two countries and Ethiopia, according to diplomatic and Somali government sources. The delivery on Tuesday marks a significant shift in regional alliances and comes amid escalating disputes over territorial integrity and water resources.
Two Egyptian military planes landed at Mogadishu airport on Tuesday morning, carrying weapons and ammunition, as confirmed by two diplomats and a senior Somali official speaking on condition of anonymity. The arrival of the planes was captured in a video shared on social media and verified by Reuters.
This military support follows a security pact signed between Egypt and Somalia earlier this month, a direct response to Ethiopia’s controversial deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland. The preliminary agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which would lease coastal land to Ethiopia in exchange for possible recognition of Somaliland’s independence, has been condemned by the Somali government as an assault on its sovereignty.
The arms delivery is seen as a strategic move by Egypt, which has been at odds with Ethiopia for years over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Egypt, heavily dependent on the Nile for its water supply, views the dam as an existential threat.
Somalia’s increasingly close ties with Egypt come with significant risks. One diplomat warned that Somalia was “playing with fire” by importing Egyptian arms and antagonizing Ethiopia. The move could potentially lead to a confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia, two of the region’s most powerful nations.
Rashid Abdi, an analyst with the Sahan Research think-tank, highlighted the potential for escalation: “If the Egyptians put boots on the ground and deploy troops along the border with Ethiopia, it could bring the two into direct confrontation. The threat of a direct shooting war is low, but a proxy conflict is possible.”
Ethiopia’s foreign affairs ministry responded to the developments with a statement expressing concern over actions that could destabilize the region. Without directly mentioning Egypt or the arms delivery, the ministry accused the Somali government of “colluding with external actors aiming to destabilise the region.”
The situation is further complicated by Somalia’s threat to expel up to 10,000 Ethiopian troops currently serving in the country as part of a peacekeeping mission and under bilateral agreements to combat al Shabaab militants. This threat is contingent on Ethiopia not canceling its deal with Somaliland.
Egypt has also offered to send troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia set to launch next year, as announced in an African Union communique earlier this month. This offer, if realized, could further heighten tensions with Ethiopia.
The regional dynamics are in flux, with Turkey hosting two rounds of indirect talks since July between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Somaliland deal. A third round is expected next month, as landlocked Ethiopia continues to assert its need for sea access, while Somalia maintains that Somaliland, despite its 30 years of practical autonomy, remains an integral part of Somalia.
Reuters
