By This season begins much like every other recent campaign—with Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City taking center stage as favorites to win the Premier League. Since Guardiola’s arrival in 2016, City have consistently been dominant, often starting the season as the bookmakers’ pick for the title. Even during Guardiola’s first season at the Etihad, when City finished 15 points behind Chelsea in third place, City were still seen as strong contenders from the outset.
That favoritism hasn’t changed, and bookmakers remain bullish on City’s chances. In fact, Guardiola’s City have won the Premier League in six of his eight seasons in charge, only missing out during the 2019-20 season when Liverpool amassed the second-most points in league history to edge them out. This dominance has led some to argue that bookmakers have historically undervalued City’s potential, despite their remarkable consistency.
Manchester City’s winning rate in the Guardiola era stands at a staggering 75%—which means that if you had bet on them to win the title over the last eight seasons, you’d likely be sitting on a significant profit. However, as City prepares to embark on the 2024-25 season, doubts are beginning to creep in.
While the preseason betting odds still favor City, there are reasons to believe this could be the year they falter. For one, bookmakers have given City a 47.6% chance (or +110 odds) of winning the Premier League again. Although these odds still place them as favorites, there are underlying factors that could tip the scales in favor of their rivals, most notably Arsenal.
So why might Manchester City fail to win the league this season, and why is Arsenal poised to take the crown?
1. City’s Squad Depth Concerns
Despite City’s massive financial muscle, their squad depth has been a point of concern ahead of this campaign. The sale of key players and injuries could expose vulnerabilities that rivals like Arsenal are ready to exploit. The team has also seen a few summer departures and signings, and while City has done well to reinforce, there is a sense that they lack the depth that has been their hallmark in past seasons.
2. Arsenal’s Rising Form
Arsenal has been on a steady upward trajectory under Mikel Arteta. Last season, the Gunners pushed City for much of the campaign and finished second. With further squad reinforcements, including marquee signings and tactical evolution, Arsenal looks well-positioned to take the next step in their development. The momentum seems to be with them as they enter the 2024-25 season brimming with confidence.
3. The Fatigue Factor
Manchester City’s success across multiple competitions in recent seasons could come at a cost. Competing at the highest levels in the Premier League, UEFA Champions League, FA Cup, and other tournaments has led to physical and mental fatigue within the squad. Managing so many fronts could take its toll, giving rivals like Arsenal an edge in the title race.
4. Changes in the Backroom
City has seen changes not just on the pitch but behind the scenes as well. Key staff members and backroom personnel who played an integral role in Guardiola’s success have moved on. These transitions could have subtle effects on the team’s cohesion and ability to adapt during crucial moments of the season.
5. Arsenal’s Strengthened Attack
Arsenal’s bolstered attack could be the game-changer this season. Arteta’s side has added key attacking talents, and with stars like Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, and Martin Ødegaard firing on all cylinders, Arsenal’s front line could prove too potent for City’s defense. If Arsenal’s forwards can maintain their form, they could challenge City’s dominance.
As we approach the kickoff of the 2024-25 Premier League season, Manchester City remains the bookmakers’ favorites—but with strong challenges from Arsenal and Liverpool, this might be the year the balance of power shifts.
Culled: football365.com
