WASHINGTON (BN24) — The International Monetary Fund has revised upward its economic growth forecast for Nigeria, projecting the West African nation’s GDP will expand by 3.9% in 2025, with growth expected to accelerate to 4.1% in 2026. The update, published in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook during its Annual Meetings in Washington, reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic trajectory under ongoing fiscal and structural reforms.
The IMF attributed the improved outlook to a combination of higher oil production, rising investor confidence, exchange rate stabilization, and broader domestic policy shifts. Nigeria’s enhanced position comes in contrast to the global trend, where the Fund expects economic growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 amid rising trade protectionism and waning temporary growth drivers.
“Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, and a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape,” IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said during a press briefing on the report.
He pointed to Nigeria’s limited exposure to the effects of rising U.S. tariffs and the country’s stable foreign reserves as contributing factors. The ongoing rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product also bolstered the Fund’s optimism.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso welcomed the IMF’s outlook, citing reforms implemented under President Bola Tinubu’s administration as key to restructuring the economy. Speaking during the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) briefing, Cardoso emphasized Nigeria’s evolving trade dynamics and currency competitiveness.
“We now have a more competitive currency and, for once, a positive balance of trade surplus expected to remain around six percent of GDP,” Cardoso said. “The economy is witnessing a shift from import dependency to domestic production and export growth.”
He noted that the fiscal and monetary reforms have helped reduce the economy’s vulnerability to global disruptions, including tariff tensions.
The IMF report underscored the broader challenges facing the global economy, including declining growth in advanced economies, which are forecast to hover around 1.5% in the coming years. While emerging and developing economies are projected to grow above 4%, downside risks persist due to protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and labor market disruptions.
“The global economy has shown resilience to trade policy shocks, but the drag from shifting policies is becoming visible,” the report stated. “Suboptimal reallocation of resources and technological decoupling may restrain growth in the years ahead.”
Petya Koeva Brooks, IMF Deputy Research Director, said growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain stable at 4.1% in 2025, edging up to 4.4% in 2026. She noted Nigeria’s upward revision sets it apart as a leading growth prospect in the region.
The Fund urged governments worldwide to pursue credible and sustainable policies, rebuild fiscal buffers, and maintain the independence of central banks to safeguard long-term growth prospects.
