MAIDUGURI, Nigeria — A sharp escalation in attacks by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in northeastern Nigeria has reignited fears of a full-scale jihadist resurgence, as extremist groups demonstrate alarming advancements in technology and battlefield coordination, according to security experts.
Over the past weekend, at least 22 civilians were killed in separate raids across Adamawa and Borno states. On Monday, an improvised explosive device (IED) planted by militants tore through two vehicles in Borno, claiming the lives of 26 more. Since the start of the year, dozens of similar deadly assaults have rocked the region, pointing to a growing operational tempo by jihadist factions once thought to be in decline.
Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum, whose state has borne the brunt of the 15-year insurgency, warned late last week that terrorist elements were regrouping in key strategic locations such as the Lake Chad Basin and the notorious Sambisa Forest, with little apparent resistance from Nigeria’s overstretched military forces.
“The insurgents are regaining ground,” Zulum said during a press briefing. “They are consolidating in rural and border regions where state presence is minimal.”
The resurgence comes amid a relative pause in inter-factional fighting between Boko Haram and its offshoot, ISWAP. Since their 2016 split, the two groups had battled violently for supremacy in the region, often draining their resources in the process. But recent intelligence indicates a tactical pivot: the factions are now focused on coordinated offensives against state forces and civilians, rather than internal disputes.
Experts say the groups have adopted more sophisticated warfare strategies — including the deployment of armed drones — signaling fresh streams of funding and technical support, particularly for ISWAP.
“Both Boko Haram and ISWAP have become bolder in recent months and are demonstrating improved combat capability,” said James Barnett, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute with extensive fieldwork experience in Nigeria. “The introduction of drones into their arsenal is especially troubling, as it represents a leap in asymmetric warfare potential.”
The Nigerian military outpost near the Cameroonian border was struck by drone fire last month, resulting in the deaths of several soldiers — a tactic never previously employed by domestic terror cells. Analysts now believe ISWAP may be receiving operational guidance and technological assistance directly from the Islamic State’s central command.
“There’s credible evidence that IS advisers are embedded on the ground with ISWAP units,” said Vincent Foucher, a senior researcher at the French National Centre for Scientific Research who has interviewed multiple former fighters. “Their tactics have evolved rapidly — we’re seeing a more structured use of explosives, coordinated raids, and high-tech equipment.”
Foucher noted that with diminished infighting, ISWAP and Boko Haram now have more bandwidth to launch coordinated and large-scale offensives. “They’re not distracted by internal conflict anymore — they’re channeling their full capacity against Nigerian targets.”
Security observers also attribute the resurgence to the jihadists’ resilience and tactical adaptability. Malik Samuel, a senior analyst at the think tank Good Governance Africa, noted that the current wave of attacks closely mirrors earlier insurgent strategies that overwhelmed the Nigerian military.
“They’ve reverted to taking the initiative — choosing the time and place of battle, rather than merely responding to military pressure,” Samuel said. “That’s a classic sign of insurgent maturity.”
The Nigerian military has yet to issue a formal response to the surge in violence or the reported use of drones by jihadist groups. Civilian and military casualties have mounted steadily since January, raising concerns among humanitarian agencies and international observers that northeastern Nigeria may be entering a new and more dangerous phase of conflict.
The jihadist insurgency, which began in 2009, has killed over 35,000 people and displaced more than two million. With militants reportedly consolidating their foothold in remote areas along the Nigerian-Cameroonian border, observers warn that without decisive intervention, the renewed violence could spill further across the region.
