By Dr. Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last 10 presidential elections, has shared his insights on how Donald Trump’s recent conviction in the hush money case could influence the 2024 race. While Lichtman has not yet made his final prediction for the upcoming election, he believes that the full impact of the Manhattan trial will not be evident until the summer.
According to Lichtman, Trump’s 34 felony convictions are unlikely to significantly affect the 2024 election. He suggests that a lot would have to go wrong for President Joe Biden to lose to Trump based on the current state of the race. However, the historian emphasizes that it is too early to make any definitive projections.
“We don’t know how this might affect moderate and swing independent voters,” Lichtman told Fox News Digital. “So really, we have got to look over time and not rely on instant, unreliable punditry.”
Lichtman’s prediction formula, developed with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, analyzes elections dating back to 1860 using 13 “keys” that keep personal preferences out of the equation. This approach has allowed him to correctly predict the outcome of nine presidential elections since 1984, including Trump’s victory in 2016 when polls and political commentators favored Hillary Clinton.
The historian explained that his keys are based on simple true or false questions related to various factors such as party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
Lichtman argues that polls are not predictors but rather snapshots, and that pundits, while entertaining, lack a scientific basis for their predictions. He notes that Biden has lost two of his “keys” so far: the mandate key based on the Democrats’ loss of two seats in the 2022 midterm elections and the charisma key, as he believes Biden lacks the charisma of presidents like Franklin Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy.
According to Lichtman’s algorithm, if a candidate loses six of the keys, they are likely to lose the presidential election. However, he emphasizes that the state of the race is still in flux, and a final prediction cannot be made at this time.
As the 2024 presidential campaign unfolds, Lichtman’s insights and eventual prediction will undoubtedly be closely watched by political observers and the public alike, given his impressive track record in accurately forecasting election outcomes.
Credit: Mail.com
