The Trump administration is considering a new strategy to intercept and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea, leveraging an international accord designed to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
President Donald Trump has pledged to reinstate a “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at crippling Iran’s economy and reducing its oil exports to zero in an effort to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Since returning to office, Trump has already imposed two rounds of fresh sanctions targeting Iran’s so-called shadow fleet—an aging network of uninsured tankers transporting crude from sanctioned countries. These measures largely build on previous restrictions implemented under former President Joe Biden, during which Iran continued to smuggle oil through complex networks.
Now, Trump officials are exploring more aggressive tactics, including working with allied nations to stop and inspect Iranian tankers sailing through critical maritime chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia, sources said.
The move, if implemented, could delay crude deliveries to refiners, creating logistical and financial risks for those facilitating the trade. It could also deter buyers by exposing them to reputational damage and potential sanctions, according to six sources who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“You don’t have to sink ships or arrest people to have a chilling effect,” one source explained. “Delays in delivery create uncertainty in illicit trade networks.”
The administration is considering using the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)—a U.S.-led international effort launched in 2003 to combat the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction—as the legal framework for inspections. Over 100 governments have signed onto the initiative, potentially giving Washington leverage to encourage foreign allies to enforce oil shipment restrictions.
The National Security Council (NSC) is currently reviewing the feasibility of the plan, two sources confirmed, though it remains unclear whether the U.S. has approached PSI signatories to gauge their willingness to participate.
John Bolton, who negotiated the PSI framework for the U.S., told Reuters that applying the initiative to Iran’s oil trade “would be fully justified.” He emphasized that oil sales remain “critical to Iran’s ability to fund both proliferation activities and support for terrorism.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told lawmakers on March 2 that Trump’s latest sanctions have created uncertainty for Iranian oil and gas shipments.
“Many of our ships at sea are now left wondering how to unload their cargo,” Pezeshkian said.
Neither Iran’s oil nor foreign ministries responded to requests for comment on the proposed U.S. inspections. The White House National Security Council also declined to comment.
The U.S. has previously attempted to seize Iranian oil shipments, triggering swift retaliation from Tehran.
In 2023, under Biden, the U.S. tried to interdict at least two Iranian oil cargoes. In response, Iran seized foreign vessels—including one operated by Chevron Corp (CVX.N)—sending crude prices higher.
Trump may have more room to maneuver under current market conditions. Ben Cahill, an energy analyst at the University of Texas, noted that lower oil prices provide the administration with flexibility in enforcing sanctions.
“If oil prices remain below $75 per barrel, the White House has more latitude to enforce measures that reduce Iranian supply,” Cahill said. “At $92 per barrel, it becomes much harder.”
He estimated that aggressive enforcement could initially cut Iran’s exports by 750,000 barrels per day, but cautioned that over time, Tehran and its buyers would likely find workarounds.
A potential offset to any disruption in Iranian exports could come from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, where the White House is reportedly pressuring Baghdad to restart Kurdish oil shipments. Failure to comply could result in U.S. sanctions on Iraq, Reuters previously reported.
Despite years of sanctions, Iran’s oil trade remains lucrative. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Iranian oil exports generated $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion in 2022, primarily through sales to China.
Like Iran, Russia has increasingly relied on China and India as primary buyers amid Western sanctions.
Some European countries have recently raised alarms about the risks posed by aging oil tankers operating without Western insurance. Finland and other Nordic nations have warned about potential environmental disasters if one of these ships were to spill oil near their coastlines.
While European regulators have considered monitoring Russian oil shipments for compliance with insurance requirements, there has been no serious discussion about similar measures for Iranian vessels—raising questions about how much international support Washington might secure for its plan.
Source: Reuters
