NEW YORK (BN24) — The U.S. housing market has shifted decisively in favor of buyers, with sellers now outnumbering buyers by 44% nationwide, according to a new analysis from Redfin.
In January, the country had roughly 600,000 more home sellers than buyers, marking one of the largest imbalances recorded since the brokerage began tracking the metric in 2013. The gap is second only to December 2025, when sellers exceeded buyers by 45%, the firm’s data show.
By Redfin’s definition, any market where sellers exceed buyers by more than 10% qualifies as a buyer’s market. Using that benchmark, the United States has remained in buyer-friendly territory since May 2024.
The shift gives prospective buyers greater negotiating power. When listings significantly exceed demand, purchasers can take more time, request concessions and avoid bidding wars that characterized much of the pandemic-era housing boom.
Redfin estimates there were about 1.36 million buyers in January, down 1% from December and 8% from a year earlier — the lowest level recorded in the dataset. The number of sellers also fell 1% month over month to 1.96 million, marking the sharpest monthly decline since June 2023 and the smallest overall seller count since February 2025. Compared with January last year, however, the number of sellers was up 2%.
The imbalance reflects a mix of economic pressures and shifting consumer sentiment. Elevated mortgage rates, persistently high home prices, layoffs in certain industries and broader political and economic uncertainty have discouraged many would-be buyers from entering the market.
At the same time, some homeowners have removed listings after failing to secure offers, while others have opted against selling after seeing nearby homes close below asking prices.
The New York Post cited Redfin’s findings in its coverage, noting that the current spread between sellers and buyers is historically wide.
Despite the nationwide buyer advantage, local conditions vary widely.
Only five of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas qualified as sellers’ markets in January, meaning buyers outnumbered sellers in those locations.
Newark, New Jersey, had 31% fewer sellers than buyers, making it the strongest seller’s market among major metros. Nassau County, New York, followed with 29% fewer sellers than buyers. Milwaukee and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, each registered 26% fewer sellers, while New Brunswick, New Jersey, showed a 17% seller shortfall.
In Milwaukee, constrained supply continues to drive competition. Local Redfin Premier agent W.J. Eulberg attributed the tight conditions to declining mortgage rates and limited inventory.
“Two things are fueling Milwaukee’s seller’s market: a drop in mortgage rates and a lack of inventory,” Eulberg said in Redfin’s analysis. “Mortgage rates are lower than they were six months ago and a year ago, which has brought buyers back into the fold. And while listings are creeping back up, we still have less than three months of supply. That means buyers don’t have a lot of homes to choose from, which is driving up prices and competition.”
Milwaukee posted an 11% year-over-year increase in median sale price in January — the largest gain among the top 50 metro areas.
Across the five seller-dominated markets, prices rose an average of 5% compared with a year earlier. That contrasts with a 3% annual increase in six markets deemed balanced and a 1% rise in the 39 buyer-leaning metros, suggesting that softer demand is limiting price growth in much of the country.
Many of the most buyer-friendly markets are concentrated in the South and along the West Coast. Miami recorded the widest buyer advantage, with 159% more sellers than buyers. Fort Lauderdale followed at 128%, Austin at 124%, Nashville at 120% and San Antonio at 114%.
The widening gap between sellers and buyers signals a market that is cooling, though not collapsing. Unlike the 2008 housing crisis, today’s environment is defined less by distressed sales and more by affordability constraints and cautious consumers.
Mortgage rates remain elevated compared with the record lows of 2020 and 2021, significantly increasing monthly payments. Even modest rate fluctuations can alter purchasing power by tens of thousands of dollars over the life of a loan.
At the same time, many homeowners remain locked into low-rate mortgages secured during the pandemic. That “rate lock” effect discourages selling, as moving would often mean financing a new home at a higher interest rate. The result is a paradox: inventory has improved relative to recent years, but not enough to fully rebalance supply-demand dynamics in certain regions.
The sharp decline in buyer numbers to record lows suggests a deeper affordability strain. Wage growth has not kept pace with housing costs in many metropolitan areas, limiting entry for first-time buyers. Student debt burdens and higher living expenses further constrain purchasing capacity.
For buyers who remain active, however, conditions are more favorable than at any point in the past several years. Fewer bidding wars, more price reductions and longer listing times offer opportunities to negotiate.
For sellers, the environment demands strategic pricing. Overpricing homes in a buyer’s market can result in extended time on the market and eventual price cuts, which may weaken negotiating leverage.
Looking ahead, market direction will hinge largely on interest rate trends and broader economic stability. If mortgage rates ease further, demand could recover modestly, narrowing the seller-buyer gap. Conversely, continued economic uncertainty may prolong the imbalance.
For now, Redfin’s January data underscores a clear reality: across much of the country, buyers hold the advantage — a reversal from the frenzied, seller-dominated landscape that defined the housing market just a few years ago.
