Venezuela’s military is preparing to launch a guerrilla-style resistance campaign and widespread street anarchy plan if the United States carries out air or ground strikes, according to multiple sources familiar with the strategy and planning documents reviewed by Reuters. The preparations reflect what officials privately acknowledge is a deep weakness in the country’s conventional military capabilities.
Sources said Venezuelan forces are deploying outdated, Russian-made weapons and reinforcing small tactical units positioned across hundreds of locations in what officials have termed a “prolonged resistance” strategy. The approach underscores Caracas’ acknowledgment that it cannot match the U.S. military’s power in a direct confrontation.
President Nicolas Maduro, who has ruled since 2013, maintains that the Venezuelan people and armed forces will defend the country “at any cost.” His comments came after President Donald Trump suggested that “the land is going to be next” following a series of U.S. strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean. Trump later walked back the remark, saying no attack on Venezuela was imminent.
Despite the rhetoric, Venezuela’s military is a fraction of the size and capability of the U.S. Armed Forces. Years of low pay, equipment shortages, and lack of training have left the force struggling to feed and maintain its troops. In some cases, local commanders have reportedly bartered with food producers to feed soldiers, two people familiar with the situation said.
Guerrilla Warfare and “Anarchization” Plans
Maduro’s defense planners are pursuing two distinct but complementary strategies, sources said. The first, known as “prolonged resistance,” relies on small units across more than 280 sites carrying out sabotage operations, ambushes, and hit-and-run attacks in a drawn-out guerrilla campaign.
The second strategy, dubbed “anarchization,” involves the intelligence services and armed loyalists creating disorder across Caracas to make the capital ungovernable for any occupying force. “The goal would be chaos,” said one source close to the opposition. “They want to make it impossible to stabilize Venezuela.”
Documents reviewed by Reuters show that both strategies have been in development for years, with detailed instructions on using small arms, grenades, and positioning heavy weapons. A 2019 manual even outlines how lone combatants can navigate terrain using the sun or stars.
While the government touts the plans as patriotic defense measures, insiders acknowledge their limitations. “We wouldn’t last two hours in a conventional war,” said one source close to the government. Another admitted Venezuela’s forces were “not ready to face one of the world’s most powerful armies.”
Maduro’s Military Strategy and Civilian Militias
Maduro has long sought to secure the loyalty of the military by following the playbook of his predecessor Hugo Chávez, appointing officers to ministerial posts and state-run enterprises. That loyalty helped him retain power after the disputed 2024 election, which international observers said was won by the opposition.
Still, morale among troops remains low. Regular soldiers earn roughly $100 a month—less than a fifth of what’s needed for basic food costs. Many have little combat experience beyond quelling street protests. Desertions are considered likely if war breaks out, sources said.
Maduro has claimed that more than 8 million civilians are training in militias ready to defend Venezuela. Analysts, however, estimate that only about 5,000 to 7,000 would actually take part in a coordinated resistance, mostly drawn from intelligence units, party loyalists, and select militia groups.
Outdated Arsenal and Russian Support
Venezuela’s arsenal is largely composed of decades-old Russian-made hardware, including Sukhoi fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, and Igla-S shoulder-fired missiles. While Maduro has showcased these weapons on state television, experts say they are outdated compared with U.S. military technology.
“Next to U.S. B-2 bombers, they are nothing,” said one defense source. Venezuela purchased about 20 Sukhoi jets in the 2000s, but most now require maintenance. Moscow has offered to assist Caracas with repairs and upgrades to radar systems, as well as new missile deliveries.
Maduro claimed recently that 5,000 Igla-S missiles have already been deployed across the country and vowed to defend Venezuela “to the last mountain, the last town, and the last city.” Military orders reportedly instruct units to scatter and hide with their weapons if U.S. forces strike first.
A Strategy of Deterrence Through Chaos
Analysts believe Venezuela’s preparations are less about winning a war and more about deterrence. “The underlying message isn’t about real military capability,” said defense analyst Andrei Serbin Pont. “It’s about creating the threat of chaos — that in any invasion scenario, weapons could fall into the hands of militias, guerrillas, or ex-soldiers, spreading instability far beyond Caracas.”
While Maduro publicly mocks the idea of a U.S. attack, his government continues to train militias, deploy portable missiles, and plan resistance operations. Whether these tactics could deter or even delay a U.S. intervention remains unclear. But one thing, sources say, is certain: Venezuela is preparing for the worst-case scenario — a war it knows it cannot win outright, but intends to make as costly as possible.
Source: Reuters
