Tunisians head to the polls Sunday for their third presidential election since the 2011 Arab Spring, with incumbent Kais Saied facing few obstacles to reelection amid opposition boycotts and arrests of key political figures.

The election comes five years after Saied, a former law professor, rode an anti-establishment wave to power. Since then, he has taken steps to consolidate his authority, raising alarms about the state of Tunisia’s once-celebrated democracy.

“This election is a critical moment for Tunisia’s democratic trajectory,” said Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The lack of robust opposition and the current political climate have sparked concerns about the fairness of the process.”

Only two challengers appear on the ballot alongside Saied: Zouhair Maghzaoui, a veteran politician who has campaigned against Saied’s economic program, and Ayachi Zammel, a businessman recently sentenced in multiple voter fraud cases.

Many potential candidates were prevented from running, with the election authority dismissing a court ruling to reinstate three additional challengers. Notable opposition figures, including Rached Ghannouchi of the Islamist Ennahda party and right-wing lawmaker Abir Moussi, remain imprisoned on charges related to their political activities.

The National Salvation Front, a coalition of opposition parties, has called for a boycott, denouncing the election as illegitimate.

Saied’s presidency has been marked by significant political changes. In July 2021, he declared a state of emergency, suspended parliament, and rewrote the constitution to grant himself more power. While these moves outraged pro-democracy groups, voters approved the new constitution in a low-turnout referendum the following year.

“Saied’s actions have fundamentally altered Tunisia’s political landscape,” said Sharan Grewal, assistant professor of government at William & Mary. “The question now is whether this election will further entrench his power or if it might lead to unexpected challenges.”

Economic challenges loom large over the election. Unemployment stands at 16%, among the highest in the region, with young Tunisians particularly affected. Growth has been sluggish since the COVID-19 pandemic, and Tunisia remains heavily indebted to international lenders.

Negotiations over a $1.9 billion IMF bailout package have stalled, with Saied reluctant to accept conditions such as subsidy cuts that could prove unpopular.

The dire economic situation has fueled increased migration attempts to Europe, while Saied’s administration has taken a harsh stance against sub-Saharan African migrants arriving in Tunisia.

On the international stage, Tunisia has maintained ties with Western allies while forging new partnerships. The country has accepted loans from China’s Belt and Road Initiative and strengthened ties with Iran, even as European nations remain its top trading partners.