Western intelligence agencies are raising alarms over what they describe as a sharp increase in Russian efforts to track and eliminate political opponents and pro-Ukraine figures across Europe, marking a significant escalation in covert operations linked to the war in Ukraine.
Three intelligence officials from different Western countries told The Associated Press that Russian security services have expanded a campaign of targeted attacks since 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, said the operations now appear more frequent, more aggressive and more willing to target a broader range of individuals.
Among those living under constant threat is Russian activist Vladimir Osechkin, who has been under police protection in France since 2022. French authorities believe his life is in danger due to his work exposing alleged abuses within Russia’s prison system and his support for military defectors.
Court documents reviewed by The Associated Press indicate that in April 2025, a group of Russian nationals monitored Osechkin’s home in southwestern France for hours, recording video and taking photographs. Investigators suspect the surveillance was preparation for a possible assassination attempt. Osechkin has also described earlier incidents that heightened his fears, including a laser-like red dot appearing on his wall, which he believed could have been linked to a weapon sight.
“If it were not for the protection I received, I might not be alive today,” Osechkin said.
Authorities across Europe have uncovered similar plots. In Lithuania, officials disrupted two separate plans targeting activists, including one involving a hidden tracking device placed on a vehicle and another involving an explosive device intended for a mailbox. In Germany, investigators dismantled plots aimed at a senior defense industry executive and a Ukrainian military figure. Polish authorities detained a suspect in 2024 in a case they described as a plan to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Spain has also seen deadly consequences. A Russian helicopter pilot who defected was killed there in 2024, with suspicion falling on operatives linked to Moscow.
Intelligence officials say these cases reflect a broader pattern tied to Russia’s strategic goals in Europe. One senior European intelligence officer described the campaign as deliberate and authorized at the highest levels.
“This is not random activity,” the official said. “There is clear political backing behind it.”
The increase in alleged assassination attempts appears to coincide with a wider campaign of disruption attributed to Russia. Western authorities have linked nearly 200 incidents across Europe since the start of the Ukraine war to suspected Russian involvement, including acts of sabotage, arson and espionage.
Investigators say many of these operations rely on intermediaries rather than direct involvement from Russian agents. Individuals with criminal backgrounds or financial incentives are often recruited to carry out surveillance or attacks, making the operations harder to trace.
This approach, according to a former senior British counterterrorism official, gained prominence after the 2018 poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in England. The attack, which the United Kingdom blamed on Russian military intelligence, led to the expulsion of hundreds of Russian diplomats across Europe. That crackdown significantly limited Moscow’s ability to operate using official channels.
As a result, analysts say Russia has shifted toward using proxy actors to continue its activities abroad.
Despite multiple plots being stopped, intelligence officials caution that the threat remains persistent. Some believe the operations serve purposes beyond direct assassination, including intimidating critics, discouraging activism and stretching European security resources.
Several individuals targeted in recent plots have refused to retreat from public life despite warnings from authorities.
Ruslan Gabbasov, an activist advocating for independence in a region of Russia, said he declined an offer from Lithuanian authorities to change his identity and relocate after a suspected assassination attempt near his home.
“I cannot disappear,” he said, adding that doing so would undermine the cause he represents.
Similarly, Lithuanian activist Valdas Bartkevičius rejected advice to withdraw from public activity after authorities uncovered a plot involving an explosive device targeting him.
Officials say these responses highlight the broader stakes of the campaign. Beyond physical harm, the operations appear designed to silence opposition voices and weaken support networks for Ukraine across Europe.
Russian authorities have repeatedly denied involvement in assassination attempts abroad. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told AP there was no need to comment on the allegations.
Still, Western officials argue that the pattern of incidents, combined with intelligence findings, points to a coordinated strategy.
The reported escalation in targeted operations signals a shift in how geopolitical conflict is unfolding beyond traditional battlefields. Rather than being confined to Ukraine, tensions are increasingly playing out across Europe through covert means.
Security experts say this trend raises serious concerns for European governments. Protecting high-risk individuals requires significant resources, and the growing number of cases could strain law enforcement agencies already dealing with other security challenges.
There are also broader political implications. If activists, journalists and defectors feel unsafe, it could reduce the flow of information about internal conditions in Russia and weaken international advocacy efforts.
At the same time, the use of proxy actors complicates legal accountability. Unlike state-sponsored operatives, these individuals often operate across borders with limited direct links to official institutions, making prosecution more difficult.
The situation also underscores the evolving nature of deterrence. Traditional diplomatic responses, such as sanctions or expulsions, may have limited impact on covert operations carried out through informal networks.
For European leaders, the challenge lies in balancing security with openness. Increasing surveillance and protective measures could help prevent attacks, but they also risk affecting civil liberties and public trust.
Ultimately, intelligence officials warn that the threat is unlikely to fade soon. As long as geopolitical tensions remain high, individuals seen as adversaries by Moscow may continue to face risks.
“Stopping one attempt does not end the danger,” one intelligence official said. “You have to assume there could always be another.”
Sources: The Associated Press.
